股票内在价值计算

已知一家上市公司在下一年度分红为2元/股,该公司业绩年均增长率为5%,并且红利分配以同样的增长率增加,并且假设每年的贴现率都为10%,那么这家上市公司现在的股票内在价值是多少?

求过程~~

第1个回答  2012-09-23
用excel做很方便,可以直接用公式,不会公式可以算出每年的现值然后累加,也很方便
现在用累加法算,到100年后现值基本很小,我一共算了100年,对各年现值累加求和为43.5999
具体看下边

年度 分红 贴现 现值
0 2 1 2
1 2.1 1.1 1.909090909
2 2.205 1.21 1.82231405
3 2.31525 1.331 1.739481593
4 2.4310125 1.4641 1.660414248
5 2.552563125 1.61051 1.584940873
6 2.680191281 1.771561 1.512898106
7 2.814200845 1.9487171 1.44413001
8 2.954910888 2.14358881 1.378487737
9 3.102656432 2.357947691 1.315829203
10 3.257789254 2.59374246 1.256018785
11 3.420678716 2.853116706 1.198927022
12 3.591712652 3.138428377 1.144430339
13 3.771298285 3.452271214 1.092410778
14 3.959863199 3.797498336 1.042755743
15 4.157856359 4.177248169 0.995357755
16 4.365749177 4.594972986 0.95011422
17 4.584036636 5.054470285 0.90692721
18 4.813238467 5.559917313 0.865703246
19 5.053900391 6.115909045 0.826353099
20 5.30659541 6.727499949 0.788791594
21 5.571925181 7.400249944 0.752937431
22 5.85052144 8.140274939 0.718713002
23 6.143047512 8.954302433 0.686044229
24 6.450199887 9.849732676 0.654860401
25 6.772709882 10.83470594 0.625094019
26 7.111345376 11.91817654 0.596680654
27 7.466912645 13.10999419 0.569558806
28 7.840258277 14.42099361 0.54366977
29 8.232271191 15.86309297 0.518957508
30 8.64388475 17.44940227 0.49536853
31 9.076078988 19.1943425 0.472851779
32 9.529882937 21.11377675 0.451358516
33 10.00637708 23.22515442 0.43084222
34 10.50669594 25.54766986 0.411258482
35 11.03203074 28.10243685 0.392564915
36 11.58363227 30.91268053 0.374721055
37 12.16281389 34.00394859 0.35768828
38 12.77095458 37.40434344 0.341429722
39 13.40950231 41.14477779 0.325910189
40 14.07997742 45.25925557 0.31109609
41 14.7839763 49.78518112 0.296955358
42 15.52317511 54.76369924 0.283457387
43 16.29933387 60.24006916 0.270572961
44 17.11430056 66.26407608 0.25827419
45 17.97001559 72.89048369 0.246534454
46 18.86851637 80.17953205 0.235328342
47 19.81194218 88.19748526 0.224631599
48 20.80253929 97.01723378 0.214421072
49 21.84266626 106.7189572 0.20467466
50 22.93479957 117.3908529 0.195371266
51 24.08153955 129.1299382 0.186490754
52 25.28561653 142.042932 0.178013902
53 26.54989735 156.2472252 0.169922361
54 27.87739222 171.8719477 0.162198617
55 29.27126183 189.0591425 0.154825953
56 30.73482492 207.9650567 0.147788409
57 32.27156617 228.7615624 0.141070754
58 33.88514448 251.6377186 0.134658447
59 35.5794017 276.8014905 0.128537609
60 37.35837179 304.4816395 0.12269499
61 39.22629038 334.9298035 0.117117945
62 41.1876049 368.4227838 0.111794402
63 43.24698514 405.2650622 0.106712839
64 45.4093344 445.7915685 0.101862255
65 47.67980112 490.3707253 0.097232152
66 50.06379117 539.4077978 0.092812509
67 52.56698073 593.3485776 0.088593759
68 55.19532977 652.6834354 0.08456677
69 57.95509626 717.9517789 0.080722826
70 60.85285107 789.7469568 0.077053606
71 63.89549362 868.7216525 0.07355117
72 67.09026831 955.5938177 0.070207935
73 70.44478172 1051.1532 0.067016665
74 73.96702081 1156.268519 0.063970453
75 77.66537185 1271.895371 0.061062705
76 81.54864044 1399.084909 0.058287127
77 85.62607246 1538.993399 0.055637713
78 89.90737608 1692.892739 0.053108726
79 94.40274489 1862.182013 0.050694693
80 99.12288213 2048.400215 0.048390388
81 104.0790262 2253.240236 0.046190825
82 109.2829776 2478.56426 0.044091242
83 114.7471264 2726.420686 0.042087095
84 120.4844828 2999.062754 0.040174045
85 126.5087069 3298.96903 0.038347952
86 132.8341422 3628.865933 0.036604864
87 139.4758493 3991.752526 0.034941006
88 146.4496418 4390.927778 0.033352779
89 153.7721239 4830.020556 0.031836743
90 161.4607301 5313.022612 0.030389618
91 169.5337666 5844.324873 0.029008272
92 178.0104549 6428.75736 0.027689714
93 186.9109777 7071.633096 0.026431091
94 196.2565266 7778.796406 0.025229678
95 206.0693529 8556.676047 0.024082874
96 216.3728205 9412.343651 0.022988198
97 227.1914616 10353.57802 0.02194328
98 238.5510346 11388.93582 0.020945858
99 250.4785864 12527.8294 0.019993774
100 263.0025157 13780.61234 0.019084966本回答被提问者和网友采纳
第2个回答  2012-09-23
1、很抱歉!我不知道怎么计算该公司的内在价值。
2、很多投资者希望通过简单的计算公式求得公司的内在价值,可是这样的精确计算往往是徒劳的。股神巴菲特就对这样的计算嗤之以鼻,因为一家公司永远是处于动态变化之中的,某一因素发生变化,就一定会引起连锁反应,从而导致计算结果的大错特错。
3、内在价值最好是通过最简单的办法进行大致的估算,不要通过精确的计算得出一个“精确的数值”,只要估算一个价格范围就可以了。
第3个回答  2012-09-23
仅为一种估算,不准确。
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